Your comprehensive race day forecasting
Toledo isn't just the location of the famous and brief Michigan-Ohio war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toledo_War) but the first major flat fast marathon of the pandemic season of 2021! So bring your masks and your vax and let's party!
The Glass City course starts out with a WNW curving route and then heads west, only to curve around again, and return on a straight ESE path for the last 4 miles. We're looking at a sunny morning in the low 30s heating up to the mid 40s with full sun. Beautiful, but that wind is going to get a bit rough. While you're have parts where you're sheltered from the headwinds, the sooner you can get heading to mile 22 the better. 18-20 are going to be with a tail and slight cross, then 20 to 22 or so, you'll head west again, and where there's no shelter, it's going to be windy. Once you get to 22, you've got a straight shot to victory. https://glasscitymarathon.org/GCM2016/wp-content/uploads/2020-Mercy-Health-Glass-City-Marathon-Course-Map-2.pdf Specific forecast from NOAA expert Chris Rozoff? Cool, breeze out of the northwest 10-15 mph with gusts picking up later for slower marathoners (though warming and clouds breaking). A good chance of a low cloud deck to start the morning, breaking up in later morning to early afternoon with highs in the mid 50s. But race temps in the low-mid 40s. No precipitation likely. Bottom line: it may make sense to race a bit faster than you were prepared for until 22, then let the wind take you home. Good luck runners! I'll update this forecast if it should change, but so far, the conditions (minus the wind) look ideal!
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First of all, thank you for all the people who checked out our blog. We've had over 4000 new visitors this week alone, and we are glad you've chosen us in addition to the other weather forecasts out there. As you know, we are runners too and understand how important the weather is, and knowing what it will be on race day.
So let's do this! 1. There may be a little rain before the start. 2. There will be sun. 3. The longer you run, or the later you start, the more likely you'll see more rain. 4. Lighting is off the menu! 5. It's going to be warmer, and you'll get a crosswind. The warm front is well north and humidity levels are high. This means temperatures throughout the race will be in the middle to upper 60s. It may be raining a bit when you get off of your bus if you're in wave 1, but otherwise expect dry and partly cloudy conditions. The good news is that there will be no headwinds, even when you get into Boston. The bad is there may be a cross wind from your right side for some of the race (when not traveling NE). If you're drafting, plan to stay on the left side of the course. You'll feel the most wind on the crest of the hills, and the wind is set to increase slightly as the day goes by, but the real story is the heat. It's going to be muggy out there tomorrow, so adjust your running time accordingly. Check your heartrate at mile 5. If you're over your tempo zone, back down by 10 to 15 seconds. If you're feeling strong, go after it after mile 21. What to wear? Singlet/short sleeve and shorts. Maybe a hat for the sun or the potential for a spotty shower. Otherwise, keep it as light as possible. Use anti-friction methods to avoid chafing, and don't forget to drink when you're thirsty! Now for your wave/city forecast! WAVES 1/2: Hopkinton: 64, crosswinds from the S of 15 MPH, potential for light showers for the first 3 miles. Newton: 67 to 70, dry, warm/humid, with SW to S winds at 14 MPH. Boston: 68, S/cross winds with some tailwinds, 18 MPH, dry. WAVES 3/4: Hopkinton: 66, tailwinds/crosswinds of 15 MPH, dry, humid, partly sunny. Newton: 67 to 70, dry, warm/humid, with SW to S winds at 15 MPH. Boston: 69, tail/crosswinds, 14 MPH, rain after 3pm, so hurry! Unless the forecast changes substantially, this is your final forecast. If you are not acclimated to heat, expect 5% slower times for waves 1/2 and 10 to 20% for waves 3/4 (assuming you're in those waves based on your expected time). For those acclimated, this should be a breeze. Good luck out there and thank you for reading! We've come a long way from 40 degrees and cool, rainy headwinds at the start, like last year, to the mid 60s, occasional rain and tail/cross winds, which is where we are now. A warm front will move through sometime Sunday evening, and the question is when because the faster it moves through, the faster the rain will enter the forecast area and move out with a potential for a break in the action during the race. Since we're getting down to specifics now, here's what we know:
1. It's going to be warm and humid, and likely in the mid 60s. For light, faster runners, this means about a 4% decrease in performance from optimal temperatures of 40 degrees. For heavier. slower runners, this could mean up to a 25% decrease in performance. This could increase your time from 30 to 60 minutes if you're in the slower waves, so let your families know! Take it easy out there, take in fluids when your'e thirsty, and listen to your body. 2. There will be a tailwind all the way to Boston. This won't help too much because you'll be in a crowd, but it won't hurt you. You'll feel it most while in the hills as you crest each one and land above the crowd. We aren't looking at 2011 tailwinds of 25 MPH, but probably closer to 15 MPH. 3. It will rain, but it won't be for the entire race. Expect breaks, and the potential for sunshine. If there's lightning, expect it before the race, and maybe in the later afternoon. While it's too late to heat train, hopefully you've been paying attention to my prior forecasts explaining that it's always a good idea, and you'll be prepared. Otherwise, find a sauna or start overdressing NOW so you're at least partially acclimated! WAVES 1/2: Hopkinton: 64, tailwinds of 15 MPH, scattered showers. Newton: 67 to 70, dry, warm/humid, with SW to S winds at 12 MPH. Boston: 63, S/cross winds with some tailwinds, 14 MPH, dry. WAVES 3/4: Hopkinton: 65, tailwinds of 15 MPH, showers ending/dry. Newton: 67 to 70, dry, warm/humid, with SW to S winds at 12 MPH. Boston: 69, tailwinds, 14 MPH, raining. Look for updates Sunday night and Monday morning! Now that we are within 4 days of Marathon Monday, we're going to break our forecast up into 3 cities, with Hopkinton, Newton and Boston, as our main feature, since that seems to be where conditions have the most impact for runners and fans alike. So the good news it that hypothermia is highly doubtful at this point. The bad news? There could be some cloud to ground lightning on the course, and that COULD mean a race delay or worse - complete cancellation. There's actually recent precedent for this, when just last week race organizers in Texas cancelled a 10k because of lightning fears, and as most of you know, the New York City marathon was cancelled a few years ago because of Hurricane Sandy. While there's nothing posted by the BAA about the issue (perhaps because a lot can change between now and then), I will drop a link about it if there's a statement. In the meantime, just in case, think about a plan B - is it a marathon the following week? Can you do something charitable on Marathon Monday instead of running? Can you cancel your flight or lodging? These are things to consider.
In the meantime, let's talk a little about lightning in the event you're on the course and it gets a bit electric. First, don't stand under a tree or something tall. Second, if you feel your hair on your arms stand up and it's not because you're facing the terrors of Heartbreak Hill, try to find a dry area relative to the rest of the area, and crouch down, covering your ears. Make yourself a small target, but don't sit down. Lightning can strike from the side of an object after it has been hit, or through water below/around you. But most of all, don't worry too much. Direct strikes are rare and you won't likely be the highest object around or the most conductive. Now, onto the race! For all waves, wear a garbage bag or poncho to keep dry before the race starts as it will likely be raining and humid. The warm front I talked about in the last post will be far enough north to usher in tailwinds (hooray!) for all waves of 15 MPH. If 2011 is any guide, you won't feel them much except at the crest of each hill, which is where you'll need them the most. Wave 1: On and off rain showers with some periods of heavy rain, slight chance of a thunderstorm. the temperature should be 58 with 90% humidity at the start. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 64 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. Wave 2: On and off rain showers with some periods of heavy rain, 62 at the start with high humidity. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 65 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. Waves 3/4: 65 at the start with high humidity. There may be a break where there's no rain during your run, but when/if it returns, expect the rain to be heavier with a possibility of lightning. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 65 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. What to wear? Keep it light and drink. You might not notice that you're dehydrated with water all around you, but you're going to sweat more and be hotter. As usual I'll keep you updated on the forecast! UPDATE 8:51AM - the BAA is preparing contingency plans for pulling runners off the course in the event of cloud to ground lightning, but there's no word on cancellation. Typically when runners are pulled off in a race, they are not permitted to re-enter for 30 minutes, so it might be a good idea to bring your own little space blanket. You can buy some on Amazon now, or go to REI. Good luck! UPDATE 12:35PM: Per the BAA, wave 4 will not have a 25 minute waiting period before starting, but will start immediately after wave 3. If you think running the marathon is hard, try forecasting for New England! We've gone from 40 degrees and rain and headwinds to the mid 50s with thunder and the potential for tailwinds. On top of that per the MVP of Weather Strider, Chris Rozoff, even the European and US models are not in agreement. Why, you might ask, is this happening? It's all because of a low pressure system that will be hovering over the area, and the question is whether it goes a bit north, or a bit south. Here's why it matters. If the low pressure system goes north of Boston, there will be warm/moist, unstable air from the mid-Atlantic region. That means ran, humidity, temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, with tailwinds from the WSW. But if it stays a bit south, that will mean east winds, and cooler temps in the 40s.
The only constant? Rain, and a rumble of thunder. I'm not going to go as far as calling these thunderstorms; they will be more like thundershowers, with cloud-to-cloud lightning, but there's always a potential if the conditions are right for lightning to reach the ground. And if that's a real possibility the night before, there's a ever-so-slight chance the BAA will cancel the marathon and move it to the following year. Can you imagine, for example, having to contain thousands of people in Athlete's village, inside tents near metal fences on rain-soaked ground? Delaying the race would be costly and a logistical nightmare, but keeping participants in a wide open area where electricity could have a 'field day' would be dangerous. So back to the forecast, and what to wear. At this point, there will be rain showers with headwinds at the start, with occasional heavy rain mixed in, but as the front moves north (I expect sometime around noon) you may hear a rumble of thunder. The good news? Tailwinds will also arrive, so waves 2 and 3, this could be a blessing for you! You should be fine with a singlet/short sleve shirt and shorts. Wear a garbage bag to the start line to keep dry, but with the humidity and warmth, the rain/wind should even things out for perfect running temps. The bottom line: 50 at the start, 54 at the finish (58 to 64 for waves 2/3/4) east winds at 10 mph until noon, then WSW at 10 MPH showers for most of the race, with brief heavy rain. Check this page for updates going forward! Also, I'll be in wave 1/8 so feel free to say hello to the Weather Strider! UPDATE 11:36 EST: weather may be warming into the mid 60's after noon. Looks like the warm front will be north, which equals thunder, rain, and maybe some tailwinds for those running later. I'll continue to update up until race day! So let's get to the good news. First, it's going to be warmer than it was last year. Second, it's probably not going to rain as hard. Most models are predicting 'showers', which is not as bad as 'rain'. The difference is more than nominal, as anything under .10 inches per hour is considered 'light rain'. Does that mean there could be occasional downpours? Yes. Does that mean it will be like 2018? Almost certainly not.
What you can expect is that you'll get wet, and it will be windy. Winds will either be from the east or northeast (a direct headwind) which you'll feel the most at the crest of each hill. Temperatures should be around 45 degrees at the start to 54 at the finish by the time you hit Boston and make the last turn onto Boylston. So this is looking more like 2015 instead of 2018, which is around 10 degrees warmer, and that's going to make the weather ideal at least in terms of temperatures. Don't be surprised if you get a Boston course PR, although the winds may even things out. What should you wear? I did a search of what winning runners wore for the race last year, and while Desi Linden wore the Brooks Canopy, a close examination of her on the podium showed it was soaked through and through. A close reading of the reviews of her jacket shows it's water resistant, but not waterproof. The difference matters if you're trying to keep your core dry. But if you have a dry core, and waterproof material, you're going to get too hot, sweat, and perhaps experience the unintended result of hypothermia, or worse, overheating. The bottom line, you're going to get wet, so you might as well keep it somewhat light: singlet, arm warmers, shorts, and socks that wick away moisture. If you wear glasses like I do, don't forget your hat - it will keep them dry and prevent the race from looking like a Van Gogh painting. Bottom line: 45 at the start, 54 at the finish, E to NE winds 10 to 20 MPH, light rain for the most part. I'll update as conditions change! Before I get into the cool to mild rainy Boston forecast (spoiler alert!) I want to talk about something that should concern all of you. The head of Accuweather is going to head up NOAA, and there are plans to make you, the taxpayer, potentially have to pay twice to access the weather forecast; once through siphoning your tax dollars, and again by having to receive forecasts by accessing Accuweather. If you don't like this, call your representative, and you know, vote in 2020. Okay, onto the forecast! The models have shifted in a predictably unpredictable fashion, but most are in agreement that Marathon Monday looks like it will have average to below-average temperatures, with scattered rainshowers. If you're looking at historical precedents, this is shaping up to be more along the lines of 2015 instead of last year, which was awful. Think mid-40s and wind from the west to northwest for a little push until you get into Boston, where there will be a very ever-so slight headwind coming off the ocean. Either way, hypothermia is a possibility so do what I did in 2015 - wrap up in a space blanket under your singlet, as opposed to 2018 when I wore 3 layers and they were all soaked by mile 5. In other words, less is more in these temperatures. This includes socks of course. Consider wool or something that wicks away moister (never cotton), and while garbage bags are great to get you to the start, you'll heat up too much after a mile. Remember that the course actually heads east and northeast, so while a west wind will feel like a push in some cases, it may feel like a cross in others. Also, tailwinds will be felt more at the crest of each hill as most runners behind you will block. Temps in Hopkinton will be 39 to 41 at the start for each wave, you'll hit around 44 degrees by the time you reach the Newton hills, with temps reaching about 45 for wave 1, and 49 to 50 for subsequent waves. Winds will be steady at around 10 mph from the west, with slight gusts. Remember to get out of your wet clothing as soon as possible after the race, and while you might feel cool, you need to drink on the course. Good luck! I will update this as we get closer if the forecast changes! These are the notorious words I and many others wind up uttering at mile 10 of the best and most prestigious marathon in the world. Whether it's failing to train enough, or going out too hard in the first part of the mostly downhill portion of the race, but more often than not, it's the weather. It's always a major factor. You can count on picking TWO of these: Perfect temperatures Massive headwinds Hypothermia Hyperthermia Soaking cold rain Brutal humidity That being said, the best expectation is not only to expect the unexpected, but to expect that which you did not train for. Did you have a warm, reasonably mild winter? Boston will be cold and rainy. Did you have a terribly cold winter with snow? Boston will end up being warm or even hot, with full sun. Whatever you prepared for won't be offered. And if you have ideal whether, you'll be recovering from an injury. This year should be no exception. The models are predicting a warmer than average April in the Northeast. From NOAA: "The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures exists across the Northeast, closest to the forecast position of the anomalous ridge axis. " That's weather-speak for 'prepare to run a low slower due to heat'. So the first question is, what will the forecast be? At this point I would expect 65 at the start, and 75 at the finish in Boston, with 5 to 15 MPH headwinds after mile 21, and some WSW tailwinds for most of the run. The next question is, what can be done about it? Well first, if you're from the plains and midwest, you've had a cold, snowy winter. The BEST thing you can do, no matter what, is start heat training. Overdress in several layers so you're sweating, and try to keep the sweating going all day long. There are plenty of studies to back this up, but all of them say that heat training is beneficial whether or not it's a cold race. It boosts heart rate and blood plasma volume. So even if my forecast turns into a dud, you'll be ready!
So here's a reminder about how these forecasts work. To the extent they remain the same, you can rely on them up until race day. To the extent that they change, check the most recent (top) forecast for your race. For Boston, that could mean changes on race morning as I'm heading for the start line myself. Boston is one of the hardest weather forecasts because of it's proximity to the ocean. A subtle change in wind direction can mean the difference of 10 degrees one way or the other, and the same can happen depending on wind speed and cloud cover. So let's first talk about what we know for sure about Boston: 1. Nothing is certain, even on race morning. In 2012, the forecast temperature on race day was only supposed to be in the upper 60s, but it hit well into the 80s with full sun and the forecast was updated just before the starting gun went off. Luckily the race organizers had already planned for warm weather with showers on the course, but most people raced 30 minutes slower than they had planned. 2. You can expect headwinds in Boston after Boston College. With the exception of 2011 (the tailwind year), there's at least a little bit of a cool ESE wind because of a seabreeze. The likelyhood of a seabreeze is dependent on two factors: (a) how warm it is in Boston compared to the ocean temperature and (b) the strength of any west wind. If winds are light from the west and it's in the 50's or higher, expect headwinds. 3. This is a La Nina year, and if history is a guide, that means temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s. 2007-8 and 2010-11 were the most recent La Nina years, and temperatures were in this range. However, the NOAA outlook shows that there's a high likelyhood for above-normal temperatures. Here's the list from the Boston Marathon website of weather conditions since 2000 (you'll need to scroll down): https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/results/history My prediction is as follows: Partly cloudy. 55 at the start, 67 at the finish, with light west winds until Boston, where we'll be met by a 5 MPH headwind after mile 21. Check back here weekly for more updates, and daily as we get within the 10-day window! I'm going to update your forecast a bit here. We originally had winds from the NW, but now they appear to be mostly N and sometimes NNE. This still means that Central Park is going to be the best place to run in terms of wind (although those hills can be tough!), but the winds are going to be headwinds for most of the course, as it travels north for most of the 20 miles. The exception to that will be from miles 15-16 over the Queensboro bridge. For north/south facing streets, even with buildings around, the wind may be amplified. There are several caused of this, but one is the downdraft effect, where wind hits the side of a building and then travels down to street level. There is also the Venturi effect, where winds are channeled into narrow spaces between buildings. Even on a day with light winds, like you'll have on Saturday, an unexpected and high gust can occur.
https://globalnews.ca/news/1616454/city-planner-wants-to-stop-wind-tunnels-created-by-some-skyscrapers/ You may find these occurrences are more likely around taller buildings in Manhattan. That being said, the winds WILL be lighter, at 4 to 6 mph. However, if you're running at 6 minute pace or faster, that will add 10+ mph to the windspeed, so take advantage of taller runners until you hit Central Park. Temperatures will be mild from the mid 40s to the low 50s, so truly ideal conditions for race day. Good luck out there! |
Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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